Square Pegs and Round Holes

There are three basic ways of fighting fires. Cooling, to reduce heat; starving to remove fuel and smoldering to cut out air/oxygen. This would depend on several factors, like the materials burning, threat of collateral damage to other equipment and risk of escalation, etc. This is achieved using agents like water, foam, powder, specialized gasses and shut-off valves, etc.

When some metals are rapidly cooled, they become more brittle and are subject to fracture. Brittle failure often does not show the initial cracks on the surface. But on closer inspection, one would find many small vein-like lines. This may make the metal fail in service at a later date. For example, fires involving pipework in high temperature service, carrying flammable gasses are not cooled with water “by default” except as a last resort, where the fire is now uncontrollable and the section of pipe needs to be sacrificed to save the larger process facility and prevent escalation beyond that area.

The preferred way to kill such fires is by starving. The source of fuel (e.g flammable gasses) is simply cut off by closing a valve upstream and the fire gradually recedes as the gas left in the line is burnt out. This ensures that the affected pipe section retains its integrity to the extent that it can be returned to service quickly and reliably. Going the route of quenching with water may see the fire go out quicker, yet, the facility may either suffer a repeat fire due to leaks resulting from pipe fracture caused by cracks not observed and addressed; or if observed,  extended periods of downtime from replacing the whole line.

Sometimes, we do more damage when all we have in our bag is one tool for every problem.

SAN

Let me start by painting a scenario. Imagine that Shell Oil Company has 2000 employees living and working in a camp estate with their families, like we saw whilst growing up in Warri. The camp is then designed to handle a reasonable population in terms of municipal services like built infrastructure, medicals, recreation, security and education, etc.

 
Think what would happen when the reward system used in promoting and remunerating employees change. Imagine that they now make the population of each home to carry a weight thrice as much as the work output of the employee who is the head of that home as a measure for promotion? Basically, an employee gets more because he has more children. Though he still gets an increase based on his work output, but that’s only a third of what he gets from his size.

 
What do you think would happen in that work estate?

 
1]. People would struggle to outbreed one another and the population would keep shooting up

2]. The population count in each home would be subject to attempts at manipulation

3]. There would be mutual distrust, tensions and unhealthy clamouring

4]. Productivity would drop among the folks who still prefer keeping a sustainable size

5]. Municipal services would find it hard keeping up and even those who maintained common sense would suffer. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

6]. The company’s combined wealth would continue to drop, etc.

 
This is our situation today with the current revenue allocation formula to states. The incentive for IGR is about 10% while the one for population count is 30%. This also includes a 13% derivation to oil states not captured here.

 
Our current revenue allocation formula does not encourage productivity. When we speak about “structure”, this is one of the simple ones that keeps us up at night. We need to reverse this in a space of 15 years to population having 5% and IGR effort having 35%. We can do this by moving 5% sideways every 5 years until we arrive at that number.

 
If we do this, we would see states digging deep to explore their human and geographical resources for wealth generation and development. They would drive their own ease of doing business indices. We would have a fairer census figure and manipulation and political pressures would be less. We would see states champion family planning. Local political leaders (governors, HOA and LG) will also be better scrutinized by the electorate, rather than focusing on Abuja. Our collective national productivity and wealth will grow.

 
From 1947 till date, the revenue allocation formula between the tiers of government has been reviewed 12 times. This is 2017 and we are ripe for another one. Hopefully, as suggested here, we get one that turns our states into production rather than consumption centres.

SAN

Once upon a time there was an Emperor who loved clothes! And he loved clothes so much that he would get changed twelve times a day.

One day, two strangers arrived at the Emperor’s palace.

“We can make you the most beautiful clothes in the world” they said.

For weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks the strangers worked on the clothes and wouldn’t let anybody see what they were doing. But the Emperor grew impatient;

“Where are the new clothes I have paid you to make,” demanded the Emperor!

“But they are right here, Your Majesty,” said the first stranger. “What do you think? Aren’t they made of the most delightful material, the most sparkling colours and the most fashionable design?”

The Emperor looked around confused; he couldn’t see anything!

“I can’t see any clothes at all,” the Emperor said.

“These,” the strangers said. “These clothes are so special and rare that only the cleverest people can see them. They are too fine to be seen by stupid and ignorant people; that is the magic of these amazing new clothes!”

“Oh of course, of course” said the Emperor quickly (not wanting to appear stupid or ignorant). “They are beautiful; this is just what I’ve always wanted! I’m sure my new clothes will be greatly admired by all of my people.

The Emperor promised to pay the strangers anything they wanted if they would have the new clothes ready for the big parade. He wanted everybody in the kingdom to see them!

The day of the big parade came and the two strangers presented the Emperor with his new clothes.

“Everyone will admire you, Your Majesty.  The new clothes look most wonderful,” said the strangers.

By this time the word had got out that these new clothes were so special that they could only be seen by clever people and, not wanting to appear stupid or ignorant, all the Emperor’s friends said…

“How beautiful!  What colours! What style! Your new clothes are magnificent, Your Majesty!”

“Oh dear,” thought the Emperor. “All my friends can see my new clothes but I can’t. Does this mean I’m stupid and ignorant and not fit to be Emperor? I will have to pretend I can see them so that nobody thinks I’m stupid. No-one can know the truth!”

When it was time for the big parade the Emperor put on his new clothes, said “Follow me” to his friends, and marched out of his palace and onto the street.

Crowds of people lined the road and watched the Emperor and the big parade. There were knights on horseback, huge elephants with jewels and smartly dressed soldiers parading along the street. But the star attraction of the big parade were the Emperor’s new clothes! The crowds had all heard that only clever people could see the Emperor’s new clothes and, not wanting to appear stupid or ignorant, they all said:

“What a lovely outfit!” “Doesn’t he look smart!” “How lovely are the Emperor’s new clothes!”

The Emperor was very pleased that everyone was admiring his new clothes, even if he couldn’t see them himself!

Suddenly, a little voice from the crowd shouted out…

“Hang on! He’s got nothing on! The Emperor’s as naked as the day he was born!”

A hushed silence fell over the crowd and the big parade stopped… Then… Everyone suddenly burst out laughing!

“The little boy’s right,” they said. “The Emperor hasn’t got any clothes on!”

The Emperor blushed and went red. They were right… He wasn’t wearing any clothes at all!”

“Pass me a cloak,” he ordered one of his friends. “I must return to the palace and put some clothes on! I should never have trusted those strangers that only wanted to flatter me and take my money!”

From that day on, the Emperor gave the little boy an important job in his palace because he was the only person that had told the truth. And, whenever the Emperor needed advice he would always ask the little boy first.

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Lesson:

Let our leaders know the truth always. This way, they will have the right information to better serve us. When we keep pretending that all is well without pointing them to the issues and ensuring they attack it with the right urgency, we mislead them and the problem lingers. An example in point is how they kept GEJ blind to the realities of the missing Chibok girls for 17 days! Never shield them from reality. If you do so, they will fail and end up in shame. Guess who suffers a failure in governance?

Ask yourself, on this new march with Buhari, are we doing the same things?

SAN

(Adapted from H. C Andersen’s “The Emperor’s New Clothes”)

http://www.worldstories.org.uk/stories/story/65-the-emperors-new-clothes

Image source: Jacoby & Stuart (2013).

The following describes a day in the life of some opposition bloggers and how they respond to  news.

“Nigerian troops kill Boko Haram fighters”

• You frown. It can’t be true. They must be Cameroonian or Chadian troops. You zoom your screen and scrutinize their uniforms and tags…go check more weblinks. Off to EgbereTV for counter information…none found. You are sad. You find an old one on a bomb and you quickly share it. Nonsense! How can the army be winning? Mschew!

“NNPC Warri and Kaduna refineries closed. Escravos crude oil and gas pipelines blown by militants”.

• Yes!!! Good news! Serves them right. I told you they could not govern successfully. They can’t even guard our pipelines! Just before you share the story, NEPA takes light and darkness distracts you. You go and pour your last four litres of petrol and start your gen to continue your gleeful sharing of the news. It did not occur to you that the gas turbine in the power plant serving you had to be shut down due to that pipeline sabotage…that was why your power was cut.

“New York Times says Buhari government monetary policy is un-effective and will damage the economy”.

• More smiles. Quickly share the news story. Tweet it and go round all your friend’s pages making comments about how clueless the president is. Yet you do not bother to read the news report to understand the specific parts of the policy they have an issue with and use your advantage of local knowledge to judge to see if they are right or if their conclusion is one borne of our interest or of that of the foreign bodies they are affiliated to, etc.

“Iran warns Buhari about his treatment of Shia Muslims”.

• See them. Iran is warning them now. If they like they should not behave themselves. When we told them the COAS should have turned back and come to pass another day, they did not listen. In fact I pray that Iran attacks us so they learn a lesson. Share the news one time. It does not matter to you that a warning from Iran on our internal matter, purely motivated by their affiliation to a religious movement, is an insult to our (collective) national psyche and sovereignty.

Aaah…you are tired. You plug your phone to charge. That was enough good news for one day. You got to post four big ones. You were right after all. This government is not working. Your gen runs out of petrol and stutters to silence. More darkness. Heat. Sweat starts. You swat a mosquito. You still manage to sleep…because you are happy. This country is not working under Buhari. You shall wake up to more tales of woe from EgbereTV, TrentOnline, Scannews, TheHerald_dotcom and the walls of your favourite Facebook grand cyclops and instigators…this thought comforts you as you snooze off.

SAN